The blind leading the blind
Even if they don't like to say it out loud, lots of Democrats think
that George Bush's supporters are a horde of ignoramuses. Now comes
evidence that they're right! A remarkable new report titled "The
Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters" from PIPA, the
Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of
Maryland, suggests that rank and file Republicans are more benighted
than even the most supercilious coastal elitist would imagine.
Analyzing data from a series of nationwide polls, the report finds
that a majority of Bush supporters believe things about the world that
are objectively untrue, while the majority of Kerry supporters dwell
in the reality-based community. For example, Bush backers largely
think that the president and his policies are popular internationally.
Seventy-five percent believe that Iraq was providing "substantial" aid
to al-Qaida, and 63 percent say clear evidence of this has been found.
That, of course, would be news even to Donald Rumsfeld, who earlier
this month told the Council On Foreign Relations, "To my knowledge, I
have not seen any strong, hard evidence that links the two."
Though its language is dispassionate, the report lays responsibility
for this epidemic of ignorance at the White House's door. "So why are
Bush supporters clinging so tightly to these beliefs in the face of
repeated disconfirmations?" it asks. "Apparently one key reason is
that they continue to hear the Bush administration confirming these
beliefs."
Indeed, it says, "an overwhelming 82% [of Bush supporters] perceive
the Bush administration as saying that Iraq had WMD (63%) or a major
WMD program (19%). Only 16% of Bush supporters perceive the
administration as saying that Iraq had some limited activities, but
not an active program (15%) or had nothing (1%). The pattern on al
Qaeda is similar. Seventy-five percent of Bush supporters think the
Bush administration is currently saying Iraq was providing substantial
support to al Qaeda (56%) or even that it was directly involved in
9/11 (19%). Further, 55% of Bush supporters say it is their impression
the Bush administration is currently saying the US has found clear
evidence Saddam Hussein was working closely with al Qaeda (not saying
clear evidence found: 37%)."
These people aren't going to be swayed by the argument that Bush has
alienated American's allies and left the country isolated in the
world, because they don't believe this to be the case. "Despite a
steady flow of official statements, public demonstrations, and public
opinion polls showing that the US war against Iraq is quite unpopular,
only 31% of Bush supporters recognize that the majority of people in
the world oppose the US having gone to war with Iraq," the study says.
Bush supporters also think that world public opinion favors Bush's
reelection. In a poll taken from September 3-7, the study says, "57%
of Bush supporters assumed that the majority of people in the world
would prefer to see Bush reelected, 33% assumed that views are evenly
divided and only 9% assumed that Kerry would be preferred."
In fact, a PIPA study released in early September found that a
majority or plurality of people from 32 countries preferred Kerry to
Bush. PIPA surveyed 34,330 people, ages 15 and above, from regions all
over the world. A Pew poll released this spring similarly found that
"large majorities in every country, except for the U.S., hold an
unfavorable opinion of Bush."
Bush supporters are also mistaken about the president's own positions
(a pattern of misapprehension that an earlier PIPA report also
documented). "Majorities incorrectly assumed that Bush supports
multilateral approaches to various international issues -- the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (69%), the treaty banning land mines
(72%); 51% incorrectly assumed he favors US participation in the Kyoto
treaty -- the principal international accord on global warming... Only
13% of supporters are aware that he opposes labor and environmental
standards in trade agreements -- 74% incorrectly believe that he
favors including labor and environmental standards in agreements on
trade. In all these cases, there is a recurring theme: majorities of
Bush supporters favor these positions, and they infer that Bush favors
them as well."
According to the report, this reality gap is something new in American
life. "So why do Bush supporters show such a resistance to accepting
dissonant information?" it asks. "While it is normal for people to
show some resistance, the magnitude of the denial goes beyond the
ordinary. Bush supporters have succeeded in suppressing awareness of
the findings of a whole series of high-profile reports about prewar
Iraq that have been blazoned across the headlines of newspapers and
prompted extensive, high-profile and agonizing reflection. The fact
that a large portion of Americans say they are unaware that the
original reasons that the US took military action -- and for which
Americans continue to die on a daily basis -- are not turning out to
be valid, are probably not due to a simple failure to pay attention to
the news."
The analysis says that the roots of this denial could lie in the
trauma of 9/11 and people's desire to hold on to their image of Bush
as a "capable protector." It offers no guidance, though, on how
ordinary Republicans might be coaxed back to reality.
And while "The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters" may be
perversely satisfying to Democrats in its confirmation of blue-state
prejudices, it carries a pretty disturbing question for all rational
Americans: How can arguments based on fact prevail in a nation where
so many people know so little?
-- Michelle Goldberg
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